Market Update

Fed communication last week highlighted one of the Fed’s main preoccupations when considering whether to reduce the pace of asset purchases: whether markets have understood the difference between “tapering” these purchases and actually raising short-term interest rates. While the FOMC has discussed scaling back the rate of bond buying soon if data permits, it has […]

Although analyst estimates remained lofty for 3Q 2013 earnings, going into the third quarter earnings season the S&P 500 was poised to hit another record high in earnings per share even if profits were realized moderately lower than forecasts. Fortunately, as the heart of earnings season is now behind us with 80 percent of market […]

Following last week’s deal to reopen the government and extend the debt ceiling, the conversation has turned to how much the 16 day shutdown and prolonged fiscal debate affected the U.S. economy. While this is very hard to quantify at the moment, one place to start is consumer spending. Various consumer confidence surveys have pointed […]

As the federal government’s fiscal year 2013 comes to a close on September 30th, the results of a recent Bloomberg poll on government finances caught my attention. 2013 will mark the first year since the financial crisis that the government has run a deficit less than $1 trillion dollars with this year’s revenue shortfall estimated […]

September 23, 2013 The Fed’s decision shocked markets this week, serving as a reminder to strategists and economists how daily market gyrations remain seemingly policy dependent since the financial crisis. However, in the long run, markets should price on economic and company fundamentals. With one month until reporting season, Standard & Poor’s is estimating another […]

September 16, 2013 As I have long warned, yields on Treasury bonds this summer have backed up by over 100bps, which has caused volatility in fixed income markets. Indeed, holders of 10 year Treasuries have suffered 7 percent losses since Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke first mentioned prospects for tapering asset purchases on May 22nd. […]

Despite weaker than expected employment growth since the recession, the labor market continues to steadily heal. Sure enough, payrolls have averaged 190K per month in the past year, pushing the unemployment rate down 0.8 percent to 7.4 percent as of July, notably within 1 percent of the Federal Reserve’s 6.5 percent level where they may […]

Data released last week showed that economic growth in the Euro area turned positive in the first three months of the year, signaling the end of a nearly two year long recession brought on by the region’s sovereign debt crisis. Getting the economy moving in the right direction is a critical step toward resolving both […]

In a recent survey, U.S. investors of various backgrounds were asked for their top choice for a long-term investment. Over 25 percent of respondents chose cash and cash-related investments, ahead of other assets such as real estate, equities, and bonds. This may seem surprising given that cash currently yields nothing and has been one of […]

On Wednesday of this week the BEA will release their advanced estimate of 2Q13 GDP along with a series of comprehensive revisions to historical GDP data in an effort to better account for intangible assets. While the revisions will no doubt grab some headline attention and provide some new color on the recession and current […]